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09/04/2010 - Bronx, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Marcus Thames clubbed a two-run homer to snap a seventh-inning tie, lifting the New York Yankees to a 7-5 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays in the second of a three-game series at Yankee Stadium.
Robinson Cano singled home a pair of runs in New York's season-high eighth straight victory. Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter also knocked in a run apiece as the Yankees increased their lead in the AL East to two games over Tampa Bay, which is set to play Saturday night against Baltimore.
Javier Vazquez was back in New York's starting rotation after a stint in the bullpen and was roughed up for five runs on four hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings. Joba Chamberlain (2-4) picked up the win with a scoreless inning of relief and Mariano Rivera worked around a two-out single in the ninth for his 29th save.
Lyle Overbay homered, doubled and drove in three runs for Toronto, which has lost three straight and five of its last six. John McDonald also connected for a two-run homer in defeat.
The Yankees snapped a 5-5 deadlock with a two-out rally in the seventh against Toronto reliever Jason Frasor (3-4). After the first two batters were retired, Cano singled and Thames followed with a blast over the wall in left-center field for his 11th home run of the season.
"Big. Huge home run," said Yankees manager Joe Girardi about Thames' homer. "Marcus has been a huge addition for us."
Kerry Wood took over for Chamberlain in the eighth and set Toronto down in order and Rivera came on in the ninth, striking out Aaron Hill to end it.
Vazquez retired the side in order in the first, but immediately ran into trouble in the second. Overbay connected for a one-out homer, his 17th of the season, and McDonald added his two-run shot off the left field foul pole to make it 3-0.
The Yankees tied it in the third. Francisco Cervelli hustled out a double with one out and Gardner drew a walk before Jeter doubled just inside the bag at third to score one run. Mark Teixeira walked to load the bases for Cano, who came through with a two-run single to center.
New York then went ahead with two in the fourth. Cervelli doubled to put two aboard for Gardner, who scored one with a grounder to shortstop. After Jeter walked, Cervelli scored on a wild pitch to make it 5-3.
Vazquez issued a two-out walk to Jose Bautista in the fifth and Vernon Wells singled. Dustin Moseley came on for the Yankees and Overbay greeted him with a double to chase home both runners.
"I was battling all day," said Vazquez, who was surprised at being lifted one out away from qualifying for a win. "It could have been a better outing, but the fact that I got taken out early...I didn't have a chance. He's still the manager and you have to respect that."
Game Notes
Bautista, the big league leader with 43 homers, was ejected in the seventh inning for arguing a called third strike...Toronto starter Mark Rzepczynski was tagged for five runs on six hits in four innings...The Yankees evened the season series at seven wins apiece...Yankees lefty Andy Pettitte, sidelined with a groin strain, threw a simulated game and reported no pain...Yankee slugger Alex Rodriguez also hit during the simulated game and could be activated off the disabled list Sunday.
<< Nesbitt leads Georgia Tech in season-opening rout
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Josh Nesbitt ran for 130 yards and three
touchdowns, as the 16th-ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets opened the 2010
season by trouncing South Carolina State, 41-10, at Bobby Dodd Stadium.
Roddy Jones
<< Murray, Georgia get season started with rout of Louisiana
Athens, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aaron Murray threw for three touchdowns and ran
for another, as the 23rd-ranked Georgia Bulldogs trounced the Louisiana Ragin
Cajuns', 55-7, at Sanford Stadium.
Murray, a redshirt freshman making his first c
<< Cubs' Silva to return Tuesday
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Cubs right-hander Carlos Silva will
make his return to the rotation on Tuesday against the Houston Astros.
The club made the announcement Saturday, shuffling their rotation so that
rookie Case
<< Serbia, Spain advance to World Championship quarters
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Aleksandar Rasic's free throw with one
second left gave Serbia a 73-72 victory over Croatia and berth in the
quarterfinals of the FIBA World Championship.
The Serbs led by seven during the fou
Kahne takes pole for Atlanta Nationwide race >>
Hampton, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kasey Kahne will start on the pole for
Saturday's Great Clips Nationwide Series race after posting the quickest lap
in qualifying at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
Kahne turned a lap of 181.479 m.p.h. ar
Broncos place Stokley on IR, cut 10, trade for TE Gronkowski >>
Englewood, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wide receiver Brandon Stokley was placed on
season-ending injured reserve Saturday, with the Broncos also cutting 10
players and dealing for Detroit Lions tight end Dan Gronkowski to reduce the
roster to 53 play
Sisk still two clear Mylan Classic >>
Canonsburg, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Geoffrey Sisk carded a two-under 69
Saturday to maintain his two-stroke lead after three rounds of the Mylan
Classic.
Sisk, who played the final three holes of his second round earlier Saturday,
completed 5
Steelers trim 11 to finish cuts, including center Hartwig >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Center Justin Hartwig, a 16-game starter for
the Pittsburgh Steelers over the past two seasons, was among the prominent
players cut as part of the team's final "cut-down day" maneuvers on Saturday.
Hartwig e
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com Posts Heisman Trophy Odds
With 3,919 passing yards, 32 touchdowns and a mere seven interceptions last season, combined with a powerful South Bend Heisman legacy, odds makers at MySportsbook.com have given Notre Dame senior quarterback Brady Quinn the best Heisman Trophy odds at 5-2.
Quinn isn’t the only big man on campus this season. Oklahoma junior running back and 2004 Heisman runner-up Adrian Peterson, listed at 7-2, rushed for a combined 3,033 yards in his first two years as a college player and will give Quinn a run for his money.
This online sportsbook has also listed Troy Smith, Ohio State senior quarterback, as another strong favorite to win the 72nd Heisman Trophy. A 7-1 bet, Smith threw for 2,282 yards last season and also led the Buckeyes to a convincing 34-20 victory over Quinn and the Fighting Irish in last season’s Fiesta Bowl.
Current betting odds Heisman trophy are:
| Brady Quinn (QB, Notre Dame) Adrian Peterson (RB, Oklahoma) Troy Smith (QB, Ohio State) Michael Bush (RB, Louisville) Steve Slaton (RB, West Virginia) Brian Brohm (QB, Louisville) Chris Leak (QB, Florida) Mike Hart (RB, Michigan) Ted Ginn (WR, Ohio State) Darius Walker (RB, Notre Dame) Drew Tate (QB, Iowa) Marshawn Lynch (RB, Cal) Kenny Irons (RB, Auburn) Chad Henne (QB, Michigan) Kyle Wright (QB, Miami) Drew Stanton (QB, Michigan State) Kenneth Darby (RB, Alabama) JaMarcus Russell (QB, LSU) Drew Weatherford (QB, Florida State) Blake Mitchell (QB, South Carolina) Reggie Ball (QB, Georgia Tech) |
5-2 7-2 7-1 10-1 10-1 12-1 12-1 18-1 18-1 20-1 30-1 35-1 35-1 40-1 50-1 50-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 60-1 |
For complete NCAA Football odds visit MySportsbook.com.
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