Proud powers get early test on rebuilding efforts

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/06/2010 -

Michigan-Notre Dame seems so last century now.

The game burnished reputations, showcased a handful of top NFL draft picks and often signaled whether either Midwestern power was likely to land a spot in the national championship picture. But the meeting of the sport's two winningest programs in South Bend this weekend will resemble something closer to ``Extreme Makeover: College Football Edition.''

Neither has been relevant the last few years and both are in the midst of rebuilding. On the admittedly slim evidence of Saturday's openers, each suggested a change of fortune may be in the offing.

``We've been through a lot. It's been tough on the coaches. It's been tough on the players,'' Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said after the Wolverines pounded visiting Connecticut.

``This is just one win,'' he added, ``but I'm going to let our players enjoy it.''

``I took on the challenge at Notre Dame because I want to see this program back to where I believe it should be,'' said coach Brian Kelly after a convincing win over Purdue in his first game in charge of the Irish, ``and that's amongst the elite in college football.''

While their problems have been similar, the programs have gone about rebuilding differently.

The Irish have been impatient. Kelly is their sixth coach since the start of the decade - counting George O'Leary, who never coached a game, and Kent Baer, who served in an interim role for a bowl game after Ty Willingham was fired - and the lack of continuity has shown on defense.

Like his predecessor, Charlie Weis, Kelly brought glittering offensive credentials and a reputation for developing quarterbacks to South Bend.

But against Purdue, the rigorous offseason conditioning program Kelly installed yielded immediate dividends on defense - four sacks and two interceptions by a team that was losing the turnover battle regularly. And Notre Dame's ground game was just as tough, piling up 153 yards with Armando Allen and Cierre Wood taking turns slicing and dicing the Boilermakers' defense.

Purdue coach Danny Hope called Allen ``the biggest difference-maker in the game. He's going to make a lot of other people miss, too.''

Connecticut coach Randy Edsall said something similar about Michigan's quarterback, the breakout star of the opening weekend.

``Denard Robinson is going to make people look bad,'' he said.

Robinson's debut couldn't have come a moment too soon for Rodriguez. Michigan has always taken the long-term view, and Rodriguez' predecessor, Lloyd Carr, held the job for the 13 seasons before that. Rodriguez was brought in to update the offense, but the results were so poor in his first two seasons that more than a few high-profile programs wouldn't have kept him around for a third.

Throw in run-ins with the NCAA over practice time - a first for the Wolverines' football program - and Rodriguez' continued employment prospects were dimming. But his Michigan higher-ups weren't the only one counseling patience. Rodriguez told anyone willing to listen that the spread offense that worked so well at every one of his last stops would succeed in Ann Arbor once he had the personnel in place. And Robinson turned out to be just the guy.

He ran 29 times for 197 yards and threw for another 186 yards, completing 19 of 22 passes. That's a lot of touches without even one turnover, something that killed Michigan down the stretch last season.

Speaking of which, the Wolverines began last season with plenty of promise, slipping past Notre Dame en route to a 4-0 start, only to lose seven of their final eight games, including five in a row. The same game proved an accurate barometer of where the Irish were headed. They stumbled to a 6-6 finish.

That explained Rodriguez' refusal to make too much of what might have been his biggest achievement so far in charge of the maize and blue. In his mind, preparations for Notre Dame couldn't begin soon enough.

``I will enjoy this for the next three hours and 10 minutes,'' he said, ``and try to get five hours of sleep.''

---

Jim Litke is a national sports columnist for the Associated Press. Write to him at jlitke(at)ap.orgCopyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

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According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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