Big South teams embrace playoff bid

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Almost everywhere you look, Liberty is considered the prohibitive favorite to win the Big South football title this fall.

The rest of the conference, however, has motivation that goes way beyond feeling overlooked by the voters.

The chance to go to the FCS playoffs is all the buzz among Big South teams. The conference champion will gain an automatic bid for the first time when the playoffs expand from 16 to 20 teams in late November.

The Northeast Conference champion will also advance to the playoffs with a new automatic bid, and two more at-large selections will fill the other two spots.

Big South head coaches and selected media installed Liberty as their preseason favorite for the fourth straight year in a poll released at their kickoff luncheon today in Charlotte, N.C. Liberty gained 11 of 13 first-place votes. Stony Brook, which beat Liberty and tied the Flames for the title last season - though both teams stayed home during the playoffs - was selected second, followed by Coastal Carolina, Charleston Southern, Gardner-Webb, VMI and Presbyterian.

"The automatic bid puts our program and our conference on the same playing field as the rest of the Top 25 FCS programs in the country," Liberty coach Danny Rocco said. "We've strived each year to be Big South Conference champions, but we also want to be a program of national prominence and in order to do that you have to play at the national level. We've just missed out during the last few years, but this year we know our goal is attainable if we just take care of business in our own league."

There's good reason for the Flames to believe they will win the Big South's first automatic bid to the playoffs. The Flames have gone 26-8 overall and 14-1 in the conference over the last three seasons, though they haven't received an at-large bid.

They were 8-3 overall and 5-1 in the conference last season, and return 14 starters and 43 lettermen from a squad that led the FCS in scoring offense (36.4 ppg) a year ago.

Mike Brown is the Big South's preseason offensive player of the year, ready to take over the quarterback duties full-time after starring as a wide receiver and part-time signal-caller last season. Brown and fellow returnees Aldreakis Allen and Sir Chauncey Holloway rushed for a combined 25 touchdowns, and the Flames add Massachusetts running back Corey Davis to the backfield. Brown also has a go-to target in Chris Summers, who caught 46 passes and is part of a dynamite group of wide receivers across the conference.

"The key to winning the Big South title, as in most leagues, is depth at key positions and experience," Rocco said. "We had a younger team last year that was able to carry on a now growing tradition here at Liberty and I'm excited to see what they can do this year. Most of our skill-position players are back this year and we are coming off the best spring workouts I've experienced since I've been at Liberty."

Liberty and Gardner-Webb tied for the conference high with eight selections on the preseason squad. Gardner-Webb will be a physical team with the likes of offensive guard Corey O'Daniel and linebackers Marty Patterson and Jeffery Williams, who is coming off an injury-plagued season.

The biggest title challengers to Liberty figure to be Stony Brook, which returns junior quarterback Michael Coulter and junior running back Edwin Gowins, and adds a bunch of influential transfers; Coastal Carolina, which has an key transfer as well in quarterback Aramis Hillary, formerly of the University of South Carolina; and Charleston Southern, which has a superb wide receiver and return specialist in Gerald Stevenson, but also has to improve defensively.

BIG SOUTH PRESEASON POLL (Head Coaches and Selected Media)

1. Liberty (11 first-place votes), 103 points;

2. Stony Brook (1), 81;

3. Coastal Carolina, 68;

4. Charleston Southern (1), 65;

5. Gardner-Webb, 54;

6. VMI, 31;

7. Presbyterian, 18

PRESEASON BIG SOUTH ALL-CONFERENCE TEAM

Offensive Player of the Year - Mike Brown, QB, Liberty

Defensive Player of the Year - Marty Patterson, LB, Gardner-Webb

Offense

QB- Mike Brown, Liberty. RB- Edwin Gowins, Stony Brook; Patrick Hall, Gardner- Webb. WR- Gerald Stevenson, Charleston Southern; James Perry III, Gardner- Webb; Chris Summers, Liberty. TE- David Duran, Coastal Carolina. OL- Corey O'Daniel, Gardner-Webb; Paul Fenaroli, Stony Brook; Alex Stadler, Liberty; Jordan Lancaster, Charleston Southern; Jamie Dunaway, Gardner-Webb.

Defense

DL- Joel Walton, Charleston Southern; Asa Chapman, Liberty; Josh Wine, VMI; Quinton Davis, Coastal Carolina. LB- Marty Patterson, Gardner-Webb; Jeffery Williams, Gardner-Webb; Doncel Bolt, Liberty; Emilio Calvin, VMI. DB- Josh Norman, Coastal Carolina; Cedric McGowan, Gardner-Webb; Brent Vinson, Liberty; KaJuan Lee (tie), Liberty; Chris Kuzdale (tie), Charleston Southern.

Specialists

PK- Matt Bevins, Liberty. P- Marc Ray, VMI. LS- Daniel Bonifas, Coastal Carolina. KR- Tyson Petty, Gardner-Webb. PR- Gerald Stevenson, Charleston Southern.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.