Thomas With Season Playoff

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"I'm always trying to play better. Every player on this team is trying to play better every week," Brady said. "I'm glad we won that game, glad we're sitting in this position now. I think a lot of guys played really well and that's what it is going to take again this week. I always have private conversations with Mr. Kraft, but they're supposed to be private. I guess they're not."

 

It's easy how quickly some, including Brady, can forget how well he played in against Denver one week earlier in the Divisional Round. The future Hall of Famer and three-time Super Bowl champion carved up the Broncos to the tune of 363 yards while tying an NFL single-game playoff record with six touchdown passes.

 

Patriots receiver Deion Branch, the MVP of New England's Super Bowl XXXIX win against Philadelphia, has played with Brady for many years, and it's nothing new for him to hear his teammate firmly self-analyze his own performance.

 

That promise by Branch, and Brady's own pact with Kraft, can only come to fruition if the entire offense is on the same page for the Patriots' Super Bowl XLVI matchup with the New York Giants. And that starts with the quarterback.

 

With a chance to rectify his only loss in a Super Bowl and further cement his legacy in the NFL, Brady will face a New York defensive line raging with talent in defensive ends Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul and Osi Umenyiora in Indianapolis. He passed for 266 yards and one touchdown, but was sacked five times (twice by Tuck) in the Pats' 17-14 loss to New York in the teams' first Super Bowl meeting.

 

But guess what, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez weren't even on the Patriots back then, and the pair has since become two of the most dynamic tight ends in the game today. Gronkowski hopes to play despite an ankle injury he sustained in the AFC Championship, and teaming up with Hernandez can only make it difficult for the Giants.

 

Belichick knows Brady, who can claim his own wing in the Hall of Fame with another Super Bowl triumph, has the ability to take the Pats back to the top with an effort slightly better than his last, but is also aware that his quarterback can't do it alone even though Brady may beg to differ.

 

(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Devin Thomas always believed he'd be an impact player in the National Football League, albeit with another team and in a far different role than the one he currently occupies with the New York Giants. Four years ago, the physically-gifted wide receiver was hailed as a potential future frontline player after bursting onto the radar of scouts and personnel executives with a sensational junior season at Michigan State. Blessed with 4.4 speed on a chiseled 6-foot-2, 215-pound frame, Thomas was a tantalizing prospect but a cautionary one as well, having to overcome the dual stigmas of a limited track record of collegiate success as well as the position's history of early entrees struggling at the professional level.

 

Thomas did indeed get his career off to a slow start, managing just 120 yards on 15 receptions as a rookie with the Washington Redskins, who made the now 25- year-old the third pick of the second round (No. 34 overall) in the 2008 draft. But a more productive second season, highlighted by a seven-catch, 100-yard, two-touchdown outburst against New Orleans in December, seemed to be a positive sign that the talented youngster was on the right path to stardom.

 

In dire need of wide receiver depth after injuries to starters Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith, the Giants claimed Thomas off waivers from the Panthers offering the sudden journeyman nothing more than a chance to contribute on special teams.

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After all the trouble that’s ensued since Braylon Edwards allegedly punched one of LeBron James’ homeboys in the face at a club, the Cleveland Browns have sent away their last remaining player of worth to the New York Jets. This is a great move for Dirty Sanchez and all, but it’s even better for the Knicks. Now Donnie Walsh can say, “You get to haunt Braylon Edwards with your posse if you sign here!” next summer.

Putting that aside for a moment, the move is a clear indication that the new-look Jets are gunning for the Super Bowl this year. I don’t think that New York thought that Dirty Sanchez was going to be such a rock star. With a 75.2 passer rating that was killed against the Jets, Sanchez is doing an admirable job of managing games and putting the Jets in a position to win. The defense has been the major story in New York thus far, but the acquisition of Braylon Edwards makes this offense loaded with talent that can dent any defense…as long as Dirty Sanchez continues his meteoric rise.

Thus far, Edwards has been a non-factor in the NFL piling up just 139 receiving yards on 10 catches. He has yet to find the endzone, and with the Browns mired in the most unsexy quarterback controversy of all time (Anderson vs. Quinn...yawn), there going nowhere fast. Edwards is two seasons removed from a career year which saw him catch 80 passes for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns when the Browns were the spread killing monsters of 2007. In 2008, injuries slowed the receiver down to just 873 yards and three touchdowns though he played in all 16 games.

So that being said, we really don’t know if Braylon Edwards is just a flash in the pan, or a legit threat. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is a prototypical receiver. But he’s also shown a strange, and unwarranted, talent for dropping passes. Lining up opposite Jericho Cotchery, a speed demon with 23 catches, 356 yards and a single touchdown, may give Braylon the open looks he needs. A change of scenery may also rejuvenate the star receiver.

In return, the Browns will receive Chansi Stuckey, online football betting a special teams player you’ve never heard of and a pair of draft picks. That’s a tall order for a guy whose only real value right now is in his name, and it shows no promise to the Browns that they can rebuild around those acquisitions. Braylon was the only reason to hope for the Browns to go 3-14 SU this year. Without him, they don’t have a single guy on offense that can scare any team.

For the Jets, it’s a response to the pounding that they took at the hand of the Saints. Thomas Jones and Leon Washington have averaged around 4.0 yards per carry each on the ground, but striking a fair balance between the passing and rushing attacks in New York has been a struggle. You have to believe that the trio of Dustin Keller, Jericho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards will give Sanchez the weapons he needs to unleash through the air. Theoretically, that would open up holes for the rushing game. But the proposed public option health care plan works in theory too. We need to see the proof in the pudding before we start loading up mega bucks on the New York Jets to take the AFC.

The one wrinkle in this whole thing is that Braylon could very well be suspended by the league for disciplinary action due to his “brawl” with LeBron’s friend. If that’s the case, the Jets may have to bench him for a few games leaving them with a somewhat depleted receiving corps for a few games. Also, this is a guy who gets in fights with people at clubs. New York may not be the best place for him. Just sayin’.

The Jets have a long week before they meet the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football Betting in a virtual pick ‘em game. Braylon’s excess baggage may be a distraction, and his curiously low production may be what we should be expecting of him overall, but for the Jets, taking a chance to strike gold is well worth it. At the end of the year, they can simply just blame it on their rookie quarterback.

NFL Betting Lines

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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